School roll forecasts & housing development update
School Roll Forecasts are a critical element in the forward planning of running costs and capital investment in West Lothian. They are also an important element in the council's consideration of planning applications for residential development which will have an impact on school capacities.
An update on school rolls is being presented to council committee next week.
Planning & school rolls
- It is important to ensure that the educational impact of development can be supported in the school estate, taking into account other potential development sites in the school catchment.
- Where there is likely to be insufficient capacity in one or more catchment schools, a developer funded education solution will have to be agreed before planning permission can be granted.
- The forecasts give an early warning of those schools which are likely to go over capacity. All existing mainstream, local authority primary and secondary schools in West Lothian are included in the forecasts.
- Where over capacity arises as a result of new housing development, supplementary guidance was approved in 2021 which identifies and costs the education solutions required.
- Developers of sites within the school catchment are then required to meet the full cost of delivering the education solution. The school forecasts are based on 900 new homes (private and social) being built each year, but this figure is not always met.
What does demand look like in West Lothian?
Demand for primary school places overall is likely to reduce significantly in the years ahead - with a falling number of births in West Lothian and Scotland. In areas with lots of new homes being built there is forecast to be growth in the number of young people. Generally, population changes across the country is reducing overall demand.
Specifically it is expected that the areas where very few houses are built - Bathgate, Broxburn, Linlithgow, Whitburn, north Livingston - to have falling school rolls. Some areas (Winchburgh, East Calder) will have an increase in school rolls due to new and significant numbers of housebuilding.
In some areas demand outstrips capacity but only amongst non-catchment applications for placement. Analysis has been undertaken that confirms that capacity exists for all West Lothian catchment children to attend local schools. In many schools, there is significant available capacity.
Forecasts and the numbers - what happens without new homes being built?
The Base Forecast shows a pattern of falling school rolls across the primary and secondary estate if no house building takes place. A forecast is based on around 900 new house completions which most closely relates to recent average annual housebuilding rates.
Due to changes in demographics, it is expected that Primary school rolls in West Lothian will fall overall even if 900 homes are built per year due to declining birth rates. The Base forecast over 10 years (to 2034/35) is for a fall in total primary roll of 3000 pupils from 15,000 today to 12,000 in 2034. The 900 new homes per year forecast reduces this fall from 3000 to 1000 with a forecast total roll in 2034/5 of around 14,000.
The forecasts show a picture of primary school rolls falling back slightly from the current rolls in the 900 forecast. The secondary rolls increase slightly in the 900 house forecast. Additional capacity has been created at Winchburgh Academy and Sinclair Academy in Winchburgh but further investment in secondary capacity is required to address the forecast secondary roll increases in some areas. West Calder High School will be extended to 1,320 capacity by August 2025. Winchburgh Academy and Sinclair Academy have both been designed with further extensions in mind.
